Every few years, the same question returns: is a luxury watch a good investment? The honest answer is that most watches are not investments at all — they are beautiful objects to wear and enjoy. But a small number of watches do hold or increase their value, and understanding which ones, and why, separates smart buyers from disappointed ones. Here is the realistic picture for 2026.

Value retention in watches comes down to scarcity, demand, and condition. Models produced in limited numbers, with waiting lists at authorised dealers, tend to hold value best on the secondary market, because demand exceeds supply. Iconic designs with decades of history also tend to be resilient: collectors trust them, and that trust supports prices. But most watches — including many excellent ones from respected brands — lose value after purchase, just like most luxury goods. Buying any watch primarily as an investment is a gamble, not a strategy.

The 2026 market is more selective than the boom years. After a period of rapid price rises, the market has settled: genuinely scarce, desirable pieces still command strong prices, while ordinary inventory faces continued pressure and slower sales. Buyers are better informed, pricing data is widely available, and the gap between hype and reality is narrower than it was. This is actually good news for careful buyers: it means prices are more honest, and a well-chosen watch bought at a fair price is less likely to disappoint than it was during the speculative peak.

Pre-owned is where value-conscious buyers usually do best. Buying a watch that has already taken its initial depreciation means your downside is smaller, and if you choose a model with steady demand, you may even see modest appreciation over time. Buying new makes sense when you want the full warranty, the boutique experience, and the certainty of provenance — and when the model is scarce enough that the retail price is below the secondary market price. Either way, buy the watch you would be happy to keep, because the best hedge against a falling market is owning something you love wearing.

Do not forget the costs. Servicing a mechanical watch every five to seven years is a real expense, insurance adds up, and selling involves dealer margins or auction fees that take a significant slice of any gain. A watch that appreciates modestly on paper can easily break even or lose money after these costs. Also consider liquidity: unlike shares, a watch takes time to sell, and a forced quick sale usually means accepting a lower price. Treat any return as a bonus, not a plan.

The smart approach is to buy for enjoyment first and value second. Choose a watch from an established brand, in good condition, with box and papers, at a fair price — ideally pre-owned — and wear it. If it holds its value, you have enjoyed a free luxury. If it appreciates, you have enjoyed a profitable one. And if it falls, you still own a beautiful object that brings you pleasure every day. That is the only investment thesis for luxury watches that survives contact with reality: buy what you love, pay a fair price, and let any financial upside be a pleasant surprise rather than the reason you bought.

Finally, remember that the watch market, like every market, moves in cycles. Today's sought-after model may cool, and today's overlooked reference may become tomorrow's favourite — collectors have seen both happen many times. That unpredictability is exactly why enjoyment must come first. A watch you love is a good purchase in any market, because its value to you does not depend on a price index. Buy wisely, wear it often, keep it serviced and documented, and whatever the market does next, you will have made a decision you can feel good about every time you check the time.